Um , just because something is causal doesn't mean it's , you're , you're guaranteed to get it . There are smokers who don't get lung cancer . So , you know , there's gonna be somebody listening to this who says my , my grandmother is 95 years old .
Would you agree that smoking is causally related to lung cancer ? Yes .
So , um , if people pick up smoking , no problem , we're gonna let the smoke , but we're going to assess their risk for lung cancer . Using a model that predicts when their 10 year risk of lung cancer gets above a certain level . We're gonna recommend that they stop smoking .
So we're gonna look at their age , their sex , their family history , some biomarkers that might help us , we're gonna even do scans of their lungs . And once we think they cross a threshold where their risk of lung cancer is high enough , let's just say it's 25% . Boom , you make them stop .
You tell them it's time to stop . Is that a logical approach to treating smoking and lung cancer ? Or would be better to say , given that we know cigarettes are causally related to this ?
